The damning report, entitled HM Treasury analysis: The long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives', contends that lawyers have faced more trade barriers in the EU than any other professional services sector in the United Kingdom—and would likely suffer most from reduced access to the single EU market.

More barriers

While larger law players may be able to engineer 'alternative but less productive' solutions to continue operations across the EU, the vast majority of law firms would face a spike in non-tarriff barriers which would likely restrict their activities in Europe, the Treasury argues. According to the report, membership of the EU has reduced the number of trade barriers faced by UK lawyers in the EU by about 70 per cent. Recognition of UK legal training and qualifications throughout EU member states may also be at risk, it suggests.

Six per cent smaller by 2030

Based on the report findings, the Treasury has concluded that the UK economy will be 6 per cent smaller by 2030 if Brexit comes to pass than if the UK votes to stay within the EU. At the micro level, Chancellor George Osborne has defended the 'sobering and serious' report's conclusion that Brexit would cost UK households an average of £4,300 per household per year. Public finances will also be dealt a blow to the tune of £36bn.

Heavy criticism

The Treasury's report has been derided and dismissed by key figures in the Vote Leave camp. Former Conservative Chancellor Lord Lamont labeled the report's findings as 'entirely unbelievable', adding that it was spurious for the Chancellor to hold up a 14 year forecast and claim it to be accurate. 'The Chancellor has endorsed a forecast which looks 14 years ahead and predicts a fall in GDP of less than 0.5 per cent per year – well within the margin or error,' he said.

Sources: Legal Business; BBC; Legal Futures