Almost two thirds of export businesses ranked geopolitics as their number one business risk amid a rise in global tensions, according to a report from Allianz.
The fifth Allianz Trade Global Survey found that 65% of exporters said geopolitical and political risk including wars, tariffs, expropriation and social unrest was their top risk, up from 54% a year ago. Supply-related risks such as supplier bankruptcies and input shortages were second (57%), followed by supply-chain complexity (45%).
However, 60% of exporters said they are worried about supply-chain disruption, as well as rising energy and commodity prices, following the US’s attacks on Iran and the impact on shipping in the region. Against that backdrop, more than half of companies are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers.
That follows 80% of companies already adjusting their trade and supply-chain routes in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff agenda that continues even though the Supreme Court ruled against the use of emergency powers to justify applying tariffs without Congress’s approval. Some 43% of respondents still expect a net negative impact from the trade war, with concerns most prominent in China (50%) and Germany (49%).
Allianz said it estimates the economic cost of supply-chain complexity rose to $4.7trn last year, more than double its 2017 level – more than half attributable to US-linked trade flows.
As many as 70% of respondents have taken operational steps to adapt since Trump’s trade war began, with the most common strategies including inventory building and market diversification (64%), sourcing from new suppliers (63%) and rerouting through third markets (57%).
Another 56% of respondents said geopolitical threats were prompting them to focus on local markets or prioritise gaining market share in politically stable regions, while 54% said they were responding through enhanced risk management and contingency planning.
While reshoring efforts are ongoing and have accelerated amid the conflict in the Middle East, about 83% of respondents said limited access to competitive domestic suppliers was scuppering those efforts.
Despite Trump’s hopes that his tariff agenda would make the US a more attractive place to do business, only 13% of exporters consider the US a growth market compared to 17% in 2025.
A report published earlier this year by LexMundi echoed these findings, with geopolitics considered a growing enterprise risk that is reshaping how global general counsel need to manage corporate governance.
However, a February report from FTI Consulting and Relativity found that global GCs are more confident about handling the accelerating risk landscape than they were a year ago.
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