Milbank has become the latest top US firm to call time on its Beijing office as data reveals that the headcount of Am Law 100 firms in mainland China has fallen by 25% over the last two years.

The New York firm confirmed today its small Beijing office would be closing at the start of 2025. The office, which opened in 2006, currently houses a partner and an associate as well as a second associate who divides his time between Beijing and Hong Kong.

News of the impending closure comes hard on the heels of confirmation earlier this week by fellow New York firm Paul Weiss that it will be shuttering its office, currently staffed by three lawyers according to its website, by the end of the year.

Publicly available data tracked by Pirical records that over the last two years the number of Am Law 100 lawyers based in Beijing and Shanghai has declined by 25% from 569 to 424. The decline over a five-year period is 35%.

The closure of Milbank’s Beijing arm will leave it with Asia offices in Hong Kong, Seoul, Singapore and Tokyo.

A spokesperson said: "We remain very committed to Asia through our strong presence in Hong Kong, Seoul, Singapore and Tokyo, and will continue providing the highest-quality service to clients across all of our global offices.”

The closure makes Milbank the 14th US firm to announce plans to close an office in China this year amid political and economic tension between China and the US that look set to continue with Donald Trump's presidency and his pledge to increase tariffs, increased regulatory scrutiny and a muted deals market. 

Robert Bata, founder and principal of WarwickPlace Legal, said: “The prospect of continuing trade disputes, harbingers of potentially hostile relations between the US and China and issues relating to data security have all contributed to uncertainty about the future of doing business in China.”

He also cited what he said might be called “a cultural phenomenon”.  He explained: “This has two aspects:  the first is that many very capable Chinese lawyers, who have been trained at Western law firms, have taken that training to open their own firms or to take jobs at established Chinese firms, competing against foreign firms.  Second, young Chinese lawyers working at Western firms tend to burnish their CVs by moving from firm to firm, making it difficult for US and other foreign firms to retain talent.”

In October Wilmer Cutler Pickering Hale and Dorr said it would close its Beijing office, leaving it without a physical base in Asia. The same month Skadden Arps Slate Meagher & Flom announced it would close its Shanghai base, citing "shifting market dynamics".

Other major firms to announce closures in Shanghai, Beijing or Hong Kong this year include Reed Smith, Dechert, Morrison & Foerster, Perkins Coie, Sidley Austin, Weil, Orrick and Winston & Strawn.  

According to Pirical the top 100 US firms with the largest presence in Beijing and Shanghai are Skadden, with 26 lawyers, followed by Cooley (22.5) and Paul Hastings (19.5).

Bata predicted the top firms would “continue to see Asia as extremely important for their clients”, but with a shift in focus to Southeast Asia "particularly Singapore, potentially Indonesia and Malaysia, but also South Korea”. 

He added: “There has also been renewed interest in Japan, still a difficult market for US firms to enter but one with great opportunities for US clients.”