More than half of global business leaders expect M&A activity to increase this year even as geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainty loom over deals, according to a Norton Rose Fulbright and Mergermarket report.
The Global M&A Trends and Risks 2026 report found that 52% of executives are anticipating dealmaking to rise relative to last year’s levels, with 20% of respondents expecting a significant increase. By contrast, just 38% of respondents expected M&A activity to increase in last year’s survey.
Respondents expect technology-related deals to lead cross-border M&A growth this year, with AI driving those opportunities. Almost a quarter of respondents (24%) said they are actively looking to acquire businesses that make significant use of AI – rising to 38% among private equity firm respondents.
Private equity is also expected to fuel higher deal activity this year, with 48% of respondents citing it as a top-three driver for new transactions, alongside industry consolidation (45%) and disposals of non-core assets (37%). A majority of respondents (86%) also noted that private credit will remain a key source of M&A financing over the next two years, with 19% of respondents also expecting such financing to become significantly easier to secure.
Meanwhile, 48% of respondents believe the US will see a significant increase in deal activity this year, with 43% expecting to see the same uptick in Europe.
Raj Karia, global head of corporate, M&A and securities at Norton Rose Fulbright, said: “After a period of disruption, we are seeing a clear return to disciplined, strategy-driven transactions. While geopolitical and regulatory pressures remain, dealmakers are adapting their approaches – whether through financing, structuring or targeted investments in areas such as AI. The overall shift is positive, with strong fundamentals supporting increased activity in 2026.”
Despite this optimism, 48% of respondents believe valuation gaps will be the biggest obstacle for getting deals completed this year, followed by geopolitical uncertainty (39%) and financing constraints (37%). Some 35% of respondents also flagged competition issues as the biggest regulatory obstacle, with 32% citing regulatory impacts from sanctions and anti-corruption policies.
With that in mind, the use of deal insurance is expected to increase, with 58% of respondents anticipating a greater uptake of representation and warranties (R&W), and warranty and indemnity (W&I) policies.
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