The Global Legal Post asked lawyers at the IBA's 23rd annual Global Mergers and Acquisitions Conference in New York, which took place from 3-4 June, about their views on the M&A market's outlook.
Question: When you consider the M&A outlook, are you an optimist, pessimist or neutral – and why?
George Weston, partner, global head of corporate, Harneys, British Virgin Islands
Neutral. It depends on the time scale, the sector and the geography you are looking at. Fundamentally, M&A lacks certainty, and certainty is in short supply right now. There is plenty of activity and plenty of liquidity, but it is concentrated in a relatively small number of sectors. For law firms and other advisors that are hedged and able to pivot, there will be plenty of opportunities.
Laura Nava, special counsel, Sheppard Mullin, US
Optimist. The forces that drive M&A, strategic growth and transformation are stronger than ever; companies will adapt and M&A will continue to be a tool for that.
Vivek Bajoria, partner and head of Bengaluru office, Khaitan Legal Associates, India
Neutral. Given my background as a start-up founder, in-house counsel with Anheuser-Busch and a law firm founder, I believe the world is becoming smaller with AI coming into the markets. It means there will be a lot of acquisitions. The fallout is that it will affect a lot of smaller and mid-sized companies, which will be acquired, causing layoffs and brand elimination.
Sujoy Bhatia, managing partner, Chandhiok & Mahajan, India
Optimist. For the domestic market, I’m optimistic about M&A because capital markets have caused Indian companies to raise a significant amount of cash and they are looking to deploy that cash to acquire other suppliers, competitors, gain geographic advantage and secure raw materials. The deals we see tend to be in the mid-market, and it is keeping our firm busy.
Nina Tsifudina, partner, Kinstellar, Bulgaria
Optimist. Despite the two wars lingering, there is opportunity and growth in some of the Eastern European markets, despite the risks. For example, a lot of domestic companies have grown bigger, and some of the local founders have sold their companies and formed family offices to invest in the region and to invest outbound.
Francesca Jus-Burke, managing associate, corporate and commercial, Greenwoods, UK
Neutral. Everything is a cycle. Currently, in England, we’re quiet from a deal perspective but busy with restructuring work. In the Cambridge market where I am based, there is investment into firms but not much deal activity. I’m confident it will cycle itself through and pick up. Of course, political uncertainty doesn’t help.
Caroline Daout, partner, Van Bael & Bellis, Belgium
Optimist. Confidence in the market exists despite various forces in the world. For example, PE funds have full portfolios, and there are plenty of opportunities for them to invest around the world. In M&A, the market has been great over the last three years. It’s slowing down a little; some transactions take a little longer to materialise, but they are happening.
Gaia Guizzetti, partner, Target, Italy
I am both an optimist and a pessimist. If I look at the global situation, I am a pessimist. But if I look at Italy, I am an optimist. Italy is a very resilient country. We have shown that we can adapt to many situations, and I believe our country offers opportunities for growth and consolidation through difficult times.
Elizabeth Blackwell, director, M&A and transactions solutions, Aon, United Kingdom
Neutral. We’re dealing with tighter financial conditions – higher rates, persistent inflation in some economies, and elevated geopolitical risk – so financing is more selective, and boards are more cautious. But we’re a long way from the kind of abrupt standstill we saw in the dot‑com bust or the 2008 crisis. The difference today is the speed of information, the sophistication and how the system digests shocks. Despite the headwinds, this is a more pragmatic, adaptive M&A market, one that takes opportunities instead of waiting for a perfect backdrop.
Kevin West, founder and senior corporate and securities lawyer, Skylaw, Canada
Optimist. Whenever there is any kind of technology disruption in the marketplace, there are opportunities. It will create winners and losers because every business must figure out what it will do with AI and technology. Ultimately, that will lead to more transactions.
Nanette Heide, partner, Troutman Pepper Locke, US
Optimist. In the first half of the year, everyone was moving with trepidation because of the geopolitical climate, tariffs and a lot of uncertainty. Given the pressures of limited partners for return on their investments, assets should turn over. In addition, corporate strategics have been and are becoming more active in making acquisitions and dispositions, which should cause the M&A market to rapidly pick up speed.
Peter Pang, chairman and managing partner, IPO Pang Shenjun, China
Cautiously optimistic in the long-term but moderately optimistic in the short-term. In the long term, people will need access to capital. Businesses will need to have transactions because that’s what keeps them afloat. In the short term, politics creates obstacles, but economics creates incentives. Governments slow transactions, but they rarely eliminate the underlying business needs. Capital is like water; eventually it finds its way around the rocks.
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