In a world where deepfakes outpace fact checkers, geopolitical risks emerge from every corner and economic signals seem to contradict themselves daily, the pace and complexity of uncertainty has never been greater.
In this environment, communications plans still matter – but they’re not enough. What truly shapes outcomes in uncertain times is leadership.
From planning to readiness
When I completed my graduate thesis from Syracuse University in 2004, I argued that while crisis plans are valuable, they are rarely the decisive factor for a successful outcome. It’s leadership – how people show up, make decisions and communicate – that determines how organisations respond and recover.
Today’s landscape proves that point daily. Scenario planning is still essential, but no plan fully survives first contact with a high-velocity event. Leadership fills the space between what’s written and what’s real.
Organisations that navigate uncertainty successfully don’t just follow checklists. They respond with clarity, speed and credibility – because they’ve invested in people, not just protocols.
Three realities for modern leaders
The leadership qualities I wrote about two decades ago – emotional intelligence, decisiveness, adaptability and communication – have stood the test of time. But they operate in a faster, more complex context:
- Speed defines the narrative: decision-making windows have collapsed. Conversations now happen in real time, across platforms, to audiences with diverging expectations.
- Trust is scarce – and fragile: look no further than the annual Edelman Trust Barometer. With rising public scepticism, trust must be earned continually and authentically. Too much hesitation or a careless misstep can erode credibility.
- AI raises the stakes: generative AI can distort, impersonate or mislead at scale. But it can also help leaders monitor sentiment and surface emerging risks. For example, custom GPTs can be created around topics or news trends giving you access to help analyse messaging and risks whenever you need it. The challenge is discernment – using tools without surrendering judgment.
A modern leadership model for uncertainty
Two decades ago, I developed a crisis leadership model built on the observation that competence alone doesn’t determine how organisations navigate disruption – character and communication do. That model still holds up today.
At the core are two essential leadership traits: authenticity and influence. Authenticity means aligning words with actions – especially when pressure is high and facts are evolving. Stakeholders are quick to spot dissonance. Leaders who project confidence without clarity or empathy lose trust, fast. Influence, meanwhile, isn’t about control; it’s about clarity. In uncertain moments, leaders must shape behaviour through guidance, and not merely rely on commands. It’s this combination – walking the talk and leading with clarity – that builds lasting credibility.
Surrounding these pillars are the external forces that shape a leader’s ability to respond: information, experience, preparation and perspective (external conscience). The best leaders draw from real-time data but aren’t ruled by it. They lean on past experience but remain open to new context. They rehearse for complexity – not to script every move, but to build muscle memory. And they broaden their perspective by seeking input from trusted advisors and external voices who can challenge assumptions.
At the foundation of all of this is communication. But communication isn’t just about getting the message out – it’s about creating meaning. It’s about listening actively, responding proportionally and speaking in a tone that reflects the moment. Leaders who communicate well don’t just deliver updates; they deliver reassurance, accountability and purpose. That’s what people remember.
Building leadership readiness
Translating this model into practice starts with recognising that readiness isn’t a status – it’s a discipline. It requires leaders to look beyond their documented crisis plans and ask harder questions about who their best leaders are, and whether those individuals are prepared for what’s next.
Start by thinking about your crisis plans and what’s missing. Who, in reality, holds the trust of your people and stakeholders? Who do others turn to in moments of ambiguity? It may not align with org charts. These are your crisis leaders, and they should be identified and supported before the next challenge hits.
Next, move beyond traditional tabletop exercises. Simulations should test decision-making under real pressure, emphasising collaboration, judgement and improvisation – not just procedural accuracy. The goal is to prepare people to think clearly when certainty disappears. You don’t need a formal exercise to do this – it should come from everyday meetings where leaders can question one another and the scenarios faced.
Communications must also be brought into strategic conversations early. Too often, messaging is treated as an afterthought rather than a leadership function. But the way an organisation speaks in uncertain moments shapes how it’s perceived long after the moment passes. Messaging should inform action, not simply follow it.
Understanding where trust lives within your organisation is another critical step. Sometimes it’s with a CEO or department head. Sometimes it’s a team lead, an internal influencer or even a respected external voice. Sometimes it’s all of those people. Map those trust circles, and make sure those individuals are prepared, informed and ready to step up when needed.
Character at the centre
Uncertainty is not just a stress test of systems – it’s a test of character. And character can’t be written into a plan. It shows up in the room, in the moment, in the context of the message.
The voices that break through won’t be the loudest. They’ll be the clearest, calmest and most trusted.
Allan Schoenberg is the chief communications officer at Vinson & Elkins.
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