As the holiday rush approaches, tariffs have quickly become one of the most influential forces shaping retail strategies. A wave of updated import duties is driving up costs across apparel, accessories, cosmetics and beauty packaging, creating pressures that many brands are already confronting as they prepare for peak retail months. Bloomberg’s 2025 Holiday Tariff Guide reveals that even modest tariff adjustments are accelerating pricing challenges and prompting companies to rethink their holiday strategies.
Consumers are adjusting just as quickly. Stagwell Global’s 2025 survey indicates that more than 50% of US shoppers expect tariffs to affect their holiday budgets. This shift is encouraging earlier purchases and greater selectivity. Retailers are beginning the season with tighter margins, narrower promotional windows and heightened sensitivity to inventory risk – all influenced by how new duties are flowing through the supply chain.
Tariffs are driving new pricing dynamics for the holidays
Higher duties on textiles, metals, plastics and specialised packaging have increased landed costs for many categories across the fashion, apparel and beauty sectors. As a result, brands are adjusting pricing more proactively, simplifying seasonal offerings and tightening production timelines.
Apparel companies are seeing increased costs on fabrics and trims, which is driving more selective decisions about what qualifies for holiday production. Accessory brands are recalibrating expenditure where imported hardware or embellishments are involved. Beauty companies are experiencing some of the sharpest impacts, as New York Magazine reports that holiday packaging made of glass, aluminium or speciality plastics has become particularly vulnerable to tariff-driven price increases.
These pressures are prompting visible shifts, including:
Leaner holiday collections with fewer SKUs (stock keeping units).
Simplified or redesigned beauty gift sets.
Targeted pricing adjustments in tariff-intensive categories.
Narrower, more curated promotional strategies.
Collectively, these shifts indicate how brands are re-evaluating their holiday playbooks in response to rising import costs.
Consumers rethink holiday shopping
Holiday shopping is becoming more strategic. Deloitte recently revealed that American consumers are expected to spend 10% less on their holiday shopping than last year. Because tariffs contribute to price increases across multiple retail categories, consumers are planning earlier and prioritising products with perceived long-term value.
Retail Dive’s consumer reports show that several emerging trends are shaping demand this season:
According to Stagwell Global’s 2025 survey, more than 87% of shoppers plan to start their holiday shopping earlier than usual.
Consumers are relying heavily on ‘buy now, pay later’ services, according to a recent LegalShield survey.
Consumers are favouring basic items over trend-led pieces.
Beauty shoppers are prioritising core skincare and daily-use items over high-priced holiday kits.
Resale, rental and private-label alternatives are gaining traction as price-conscious options.
Overall holiday spending remains steady, but shoppers are more deliberate about what qualifies as a ‘worth-it’ purchase in a tariff-affected market.
Brand outlook for 2026
Many of the dynamics influencing the 2025 holiday season are expected to carry over into next year. McKinsey’s most recent analysis in The State of Fashion 2026 shows that 26% of fashion executives anticipate additional price increases of more than 5%, with an expected 18% increase in the luxury goods market by 2026. This environment is prompting brands to diversify sourcing, adopt flexible production models and expand private-label offerings that are less exposed to duty fluctuations.
Looking ahead, fashion, apparel and beauty companies may shift their holiday planning earlier in the year, relying on more dynamic forecasting tools and more robust scenario planning to navigate tariff-driven uncertainty.
At Foley & Lardner, Arianna Benitez Colon supports clients in corporate and transactional matters as part of the firm’s fashion, apparel and beauty team. She can be reached at [email protected].
Email your news and story ideas to: [email protected]
